The February edition of the Columbia Journalism Review has a thoroughly insightful and researched article by Robert Kuttner speculating on a potential bright future for companies which publish newspapers -- as non-paper publishers. These organizations will share news via the web, Kuttner thinks. The article editor notes that Kuttner is co-editor of The American Prospect, a columnist for The Boston Globe, and the author of seven books. His past affiliations include BusinessWeek, The Washington Post, and the late journalism review (More). His first real job was as I.F. Stone's assistant.
Here's the link to the article: http://www.cjr.org/issues/2007/2/Kuttner.asp
I exchanged the following post with Rick Hood, a website developer in Amherst, Mass., who is a new observer of the news industry.
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sun, 4 Mar 2007 17:10:08 -0500 (EST)
From: Bill Densmore
To: Richard Hood Subject:
RE: CJR article
My bet is that advertising revenue alone, because of intense online competition driving down the pricing of it, won't support near as many reporters in a market like Boston as The Globe sustains today with print advertising. On the other hand, the advertising competition means that others will be getting pieces of the pie, too, and so perhaps in the aggregate, there might be as many reporters covering metro Boston as there are now -- just spread among more organizations.
I think some content will ***not*** be free because it will be unique enough, and niche enough, that people will be willing to pay for it. It is a common perception that because on the web most content is free, that most content is free generally. In fact, the free content on the web is a tiny fraction (I would like to see some numbers on this) of the non-fiction content used by business and consumers, and tons of that is not free. It's not on the web ****because**** the people who manufacture the content won't put it there if they can't get paid for it. Or it is on the web, but behind firewalls so you never see it searched or referenced.
This is seen as a big challenge by Google and Yahoo -- they want to search ALL the world's content, but they can't get to the charged stuff.
So what I see emerging is a hybrid model where lots of content will be ad support, and lots of content not now "seen" on the web will become visible, but only after a very simple payment mechanism emerges.
-- bill
On Sun, 4 Mar 2007, Richard Hood wrote:
> Wow, what a great article. Pretty much sums up the whole situation > regarding print vs. web and the effect on large, medium and small > newspapers. >
> I didn't realize that on average publicly traded newspapers are quite > profitable (17.8%), but that stock prices are lagging - sounds like > investors should start buying newspaper stocks. >
> Newspapers (and magazines) still have the most valued asset: good reporters. > It's just a question of how best they can sell the production of those > assets. >
> My opinion is that the newspapers are going to do great online, and that > they can do so even if it's free. Web advertising is exploding (thanks to > Google). As the big newspapers get better and better at online presentation > (including audio and video) people like me are just going to straight there > - we're not going to mess around with a bunch of blogs or other sites - > especially if it's free. However, I think its smart that they are easing > into that - like the NY Times having part of it free, but part of it by > subscription for now. I predict that eventually it will be all free and > advertising revenue will be huge. >
> My guess is that the following makes sense, but that it is going to change > faster than people think, especially this part: "...the revenue loss would > exceed the cost savings.": >
> "Despite the seeming anachronism of paper in a digital age, however, the > economics of the business require newspapers to persist as partly print > media for at least another generation. Some Americans still want to pick up > a daily paper rather than read content on a screen. And as a business > proposition, the average monetary value of a visitor to a newspaper's Web > site is only 20 to 30 percent of a newspaper's print reader; Web ads command > lower rates because of the greater competition among Web sites. So even if a > newspaper shut down its print operation, published only on the Internet, and > somehow managed to keep its entire circulation, the revenue loss would > exceed the cost savings." >
> My other guess is that whether print will go away altogether depends on > advances in reader-device technology more than anything else. I can imagine > a time when $50 (or less) devices are sold that are roughly 8.5" x 11", > broadband WIFI will be everywhere, so to read the paper you just turn on > your device and go there. Whatever "comfort" I lose by having that piece of > paper in my hand is way overshadowed by the extra content (audio, video and > more print) that would be available to look at. And for those who don't have > a device, or forgot it, places like coffee shops could rent these devices > for maybe $1 a pop, which they would do instead of selling papers. ** >
> I would not invest in printing companies. :) >
> Take care, >
> Rick >
> ** I don't understand why this hasn't happened yet. As far as I know, there > no reader-type-devices like this. There are tablet PCs, which are way more > than needed for this, and there are readers like the Sony reader, but that > is just for PDFs, not web pages.
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